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THE
LIMITS OF SCIENCE
By
Anthony F. Liversidge
The Cultural Studies Times Fall 1995
What science
is, is a slippery topic, as the science wars show. According to
some, it is a religion, ripe for deconstruction as a myth-making
cultural activity. Well, fine. That strikes a chord with anyone
familiar with the way scientists operate in real life, and as
even the clear headed Karl Popper remarked, "science must
begin with myth, and with the criticism of myths." Others
say that, on the contrary, science is an internal process insulated,
if done well, from social and even psychological influence, and
therefore from such analysis. That argument, too, seems undeniable.
Perhaps it
simply boils down to which science, and which scientist, one is
talking about. Sciences vary. As do scientists, a species that includes,
as Peter Medawar observed, "collectors, classifiers, and compulsive
tidiers up; many are detectives by temperament and many are explorers,
some are artists and other artisans. There are poet-scientists and
philosopher-scientists and even a few mystics."
The practice
of science varies according to which community one is considering.
At one end, there is mathematics, clean and tidy and a law unto
itself, its results immune to culture, unaffected by human foibles
and prejudice. Then there is the rest of science, in various degrees
hypothetical, uncertain,and open to interpretation, and thus influenced
by human psychology, sociology, politics, and other corruptions.
"All the sciences aspire to the condition of mathematics,"
as Santayana observed, but they rarely make it. Personally, I love
the scientific ideal, and wish all scientist were pure as mathematicians.
But since they aren't, I welcome the attention of science studies
professors.
Any fresh way
of scrutinizing science, and drawing attention to the difference
between the naive ideal and the more complex reality, can only be
helpful. Sometimes this gap is a chasm. Scientists rule without
much challenge as the high priests of today's popular faith, and
they do so by virtue of their monopoly on expertise, which outsiders
are ill equipped to dispute. A little demystification never does
any harm, where there is self-serving arrogance to be deflated.
There is one
dim corner of science in particular, where there is every sign that
the public interest is being mugged daily by the arrogance and bias
of scientists, and even science editors. I refer to the science
of AIDS. What has happened over the past decade in AIDS is a tutorial
in how supposedly ideal science as practiced under modern conditions
may be massively subverted by careerist politics and possibly unconscious
self-interest.
To understand
how this can happen, one has to realize that much of science is
more open to extraneous influence, and internal manipulation, than
pure mathematics. When Andrew Wiles announced his solution of Fermat's
Theorem after over 300 years, he produced his written proof, it
was gone over by his expert colleagues and he was sent back to his
attic study to labor for a further year before the major kink the
reviewers had found could be smoothed out. In physics too, when
cold fusion in a jar was announced, it took only a few weeks worth
of independent checking in other laboratories to indicate that journalists
could begin writing interesting books on how scientific ambition
feeds self-delusion. Even Einstein's most radical ideas were validated
by observations and the paradoxes of quantum mechanics deconstructed
in experiment. Among the tracings of linear accelerators you can
even see subatomic particles that have, in theory, traveled "backwards
in time". This is not to say that paradigms won't be overturned,
as understanding is improved with fresh evidence, and even more
brilliant hypothetical speculation to fit the jigsaw together. But
at least in such cases the ideas are wide open to inspection, they
can be tested with repeatable experiment, and one can confidently
say, with Karl Popper, that the test of theory is 'correspondence
with the facts'. It is hard for the orthodox or the unorthodox to
maintain a position for very long with hocus-pocus, bluff, bluster
or influence.
But why then
did Popper also say that the task in science is to separate bias
of any kind from scientific results. ("Science must begin with
myths, and with the criticism of myths.") Because in science,
as in life, truth is not always made apparent in black and white.
To a greater or lesser extent, it is a matter of inference, and
interpretation of incomplete evidence. Many results, particularly
in certain fields, are wide open to different interpretations, and
thus to human bias, witting or not. Who can deny a sophisticated
awareness of external mental influences at work in the less certain
fields of medicine, biology, paleontology, zoology and the like,
where limits to experiment so often confound certainty? No one can
travel to examine a pulsar close-up or revisit past eras to see
the incomplete fossil record, or the broken finds of archaeology,
in life. Evolution can't be rerun to test a new theory of life's
beginnings, or the development of wings. Truth is inferred, provisional,
the best guess.
Nowhere is
this difficulty more obvious than in medicine. The results of health
studies, for example, are often extremely provisional, as the day's
news often teaches us (as I write, we are being told that eggs,
bad for us last year, have just been rehabilitated). So much depends
on epidemiology, the statistics of disease, and on studies where
all the variables cannot all been controlled at once, and experiments
(testing candidates for fatal disease on humans, for example) cannot
always be done. Scientists who cultivate these vineyards must go
with what incomplete evidence they have. Opinions and informed judgments
replace verifiable fact, and this room for interpretation opens
a Pandora's Box of anti scientific forces, from government interference
to commercial influence and self interest, whether unconscious or
not.
Just how far
from the purist ideal the practice of science really is has been
clear since Jim Watson's account of the discovery of DNA, but science
as careerist struggle was most exhaustively portrayed by David Hull
in Science as a Process (University of Chicago, 1988). Hull concluded
that while scientists cooperate well enough, the very engine of
scientific achievement is the competitive urge which won't let them
sleep till they have bested their rivals. Historians of science
find many examples of corners being cut as scientists compete. Just
recently, research on the papers of as great a hero of science as
Pasteur has revealed claims which anticipated proof. All in all,
science in practice is not always a gentlemanly business.
What this all
means is that overturning the orthodoxy is no easier in science
than other disciplines, despite the professed open-mindedness of
science as a vocation. As Thomas Kuhn pointed out, updating the
received wisdom in a science is typically a no holds barred struggle
where all the forces of bias and entrenched interest are brought
to bear against the challenger, at least until the weight of logic
and evidence becomes overwhelming, and perhaps even beyond that
point. The opinion, for example, that the blueprint of life was
contained in a protein, rather than the simpler molecule of DNA,
lasted well past firm evidence to the contrary. The proof was dismissed
as a mistake. Talk to any Nobel prize winner, and he/she will tell
of the prejudice and close-mindedness which met their novel publications.
The establishment reviewers will strenuously resist a new interpretation,
and it doesn't take a cynic to suspect they are rationalizing their
stake in the old paradigm, even if the motivation is unconscious.
Which brings
us to the latest and greatest example of paradigm protectionism,
the sputtering, almost suppressed challenge to the ruling notion
in the science of AIDS: the hypothesis that the syndrome is an infectious
disease caused by the notorious retrovirus, HIV. What is still not
widely enough appreciated is that there is substantial doubt among
some well-informed scientists and commentators that this simple
retrovirus is the right answer to the puzzle of AIDS, that is, the
severe immune collapse and its many attendant diseases, which are
called AIDS if HIV is present. But over the past decade this doubt
has been largely stifled, and prevented from attaining a full airing
in the science journals and in the media.
There are many
reasons for the doubt, not the least of which is that the theory
was announced before compelling evidence was in. In fact even today,
despite the theory's universal adoption by virtually all of the
scientists in the field (those who publicly think otherwise cannot
obtain federal funding), there is no published paper any scientist
can point out as quotable proof that HIV causes AIDS (A Conversation
with Kary Mullis, California Monthly, Sept 1994, p. 16). Tens of
thousands of published papers assume the notion as a premise, and
thus appear to bolster the paradigm beyond dismantling critique.
The very name of the retrovirus Human I m m u n o d e f i c i e
n c y Virus suggests certainty about its role. Yet, critics point
out that, after a decade and some $25 billion worth of investigation,
convincing lab proof for how HIV might induce immune collapse on
the molecular level is still missing. Other indications of a problem
with the current hypothesis is that it has "failed to produce
public health benefits, as no antiviral drug, no vaccine, and no
efficient prevention have been developed. Above all, the HIV-AIDS
hypothesis has failed to make valid predictions, the acid test of
scientific hypotheses. For example, the prediction that AIDS would
spread exponentially in the general population proved to be flawed."
(P. Duesburg, Genetica, Vol. 95, No. 13, March 1995, p.3).
Perhaps the
greatest weakness of the ruling paradigm is that the evidence that
HIV is the cause of AIDS remains purely epidemiological, an association
of HIV with AIDS that doesn't prove it is the cause, because correlation
does not prove causation. This sole exhibit of the prosecution is
vitiated by a circularity; according to the CDC (Centers for Disease
Control), if HIV is present, the disease symptom (for example tuberculosis)
must be AIDS, and if it isn't, then it's not. To add to the illogic,
critics count more than 4000 references in the scientific literature
to patients whose symptoms were classified AIDS although HIV was
absent, and the CDC acknowledges that a positive test for HIV has
not been documented in over 43,000 of the 253,000 cases registered
in the US by 1992. (Genetica, Vol. 95, Nos. 13. March 95, p. 84).
Year after
year, the position that HIV is the cause of AIDS is maintained by
the scientific establishment in the teeth of a gale of findings
that cast doubt on the idea. Among the latest is a new probable
cause of Kaposi's Sarcoma, the rare purple skin cancer that was
originally the prime marker for what was eventually named AIDS.
Now mainstream researchers believe it is not caused by HIV, but
a new virus (L. Altman, The New York Times, 16 Dec. 1994). Another
concern is the accuracy of both the Elisa and Western Blot blood
test, which have proved to cross-react with an abundance of other
diseases including malaria, casting grave doubt as to the reality
of any AIDS epidemic at all in Africa (AIDS in Africa: Distinguishing
Fact from Fiction, World Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology,
1995). Whether the skepticism is ultimately vindicated or not is
beside the point here. What is important is that it is clearly well-founded,
and the history of the early suffocated debate perfectly illustrates
that enormous pressures can be brought to bear against dissent,
even when the challenge comes from the ranks of the leadership in
a field. In this case, the chief exponent of review was a senior,
prizewinning retrovirologist, who first urged reassessment in Cancer
Research, a leading journal, and then at exhaustive length in what
is arguably the most reputable scientific journal in the world,
The Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, eight years
ago. (Both articles are so far without reply in the same journals,
though at the time of the Proceedings article Robert Gallo, the
NIH scientist who invented the HIV-AIDS theory, promised the editors
a refutation).
The Berkeley
professor of retrovirology who so rashly took on this role was and
is one of the most prominent figures in retrovirology, blessed at
the time with one of the richest federal grants ($350,000 a year)
in science to pursue research avenues wherever his mind led him.
Today, however Peter Duesberg is virtually without grants, graduate
students or influence, prevented from replying to his critics in
leading journals and routinely ignored or detracted in the mainstream
press. The Nobel he was expected to win for his earlier work has
gone to others, and coverage of his ideas in the science news journals
and in the mainstream press has been fitful, gratuitously antagonistic
and uniformly disparaging of the heresy and heretic both.
All this, despite
the plain fact that Duesberg's doubts have not been satisfied in
any respect, his credentials are otherwise unsullied, and his hundreds
of scientific supporters now include at least three Nobel prize
winners. Of his two most influential opponents on the issue, one
(Gallo) barely fought off public censure for stealing credit for
the discovery of HIV, and the other (David Baltimore) was forced
to resign a prestigious university presidency after unsuccessfully
resisting the retraction of a false research article to which his
Nobel-prize winning name was attached.
None of that
affects the scientific argument, of course, but it does raise questions
as to why the media has proved so reluctant to cover the dissent.
The New York Times, for instance, which systematically refers to
HIV as the virus that causes AIDS, has covered the Duesberg dispute
with only five brief stories in nine years. A string of mainstream
magazines have assigned pieces only to kill them and coverage by
network television has been non-existent until recently, owing to
pressure from scientists at the NIH. (B. Ellison and P. Duesberg,
"Why We Will Never Win The War On Aids", Inside Story
Communications, 1994 and Regnery Gateway, 1995).
Blatant, even
admitted censorship has also been seen in the coverage of the dispute
by the most widely read general news journals in science, Science
and Nature. Science early on published a four page exchange between
Duesberg and his opponents, but then cut off the debate and, apart
from a sprinkling of letters, has published only tendentious news
articles since, casting Duesberg and his ideas in an unfavorable
light, quoting his critics liberally and limiting his replies. Nature
has three times published unreviewed 'correspondence' claiming to
refute Duesberg's ideas, and remarkably, has then explicitly declined
to allow Duesberg to respond in full. Indeed, editor John Maddox
advertised the censorship in a full page editorial entitled "Has
Duesberg a Right of Reply?" (The answer was no).
The peculiar
extent to which Nature is willing to head off Duesberg's views was
further exhibited when the Sunday Times of London printed extensive
coverage of the unorthodoxy and of what it called "The Conspiracy
of Silence" last year. Maddox wrote an editorial blasting the
newspaper, and advising his readers not to buy the paper. The episode
was reminiscent of an incident earlier when a NIH bureaucrat important
in AIDS warned that reporters who covered Duesberg "are going
to find their access to scientists may diminish." (The AAAS
Observer, Sept. 1, 1989, p. 4)
Paradigms are
not overthrown save by new ones, and Duesberg has argued exhaustively
that drugs are the prime candidate for a cause of AIDS. His latest
work on the topic, refuting a study published in Nature which claimed
otherwise, is in Genetica, a journal published in the Netherlands,
which has devoted a special issue to alternative AIDS hypotheses,
intended to redress the balance in the debate. Experimental work
on such hypotheses remains limited, however, by the monopoly of
federal funding by the AIDS establishment. Duesberg has applied
for numerous grants to carry out experiments exploring the drug
hypothesis but has always been turned down even, as in the latest
instance, when his proposal had the strong support of the editor
of Science.
Thus the Galiliean
challenger is censored, and the 20th Century Church of
the science establishment maintains its hegemony as effectively
as the Church of Rome did in the 17th. In modern times
the repression is abetted by an uncritical press, and the cooperation
of funding officials who have an incestuous relationship with the
ruling scientists. Then there is the power and influence of the
drug companies, on which the few investigative reporters in the
field have had nothing good to report.
All this difficulty
in overturning the entrenched orthodoxy may be nothing special to
AIDS, or to science in general, but it hinges on a close-mindedness,
a psychological and perhaps even venal attachment to the status
quo that is contrary to the values professed by scientists as vital
to good work. Is it naive to demand better? Much of the philosophy
of science, and much of what has been written about the way science
and scientists work, seems to argue that this behavior is inevitable
as long as scientists are human, and anyway not entirely a bad thing.
I once asked Thomas Kuhn whether the political battle forced on
every reformer of orthodoxy in science was not contrary to the professed
ethic of scientists, and he gave the question short shrift. Without
such an obstacle course, he demanded, how otherwise would the new
paradigm be tested?
Such philosophical
equanimity might fit with Kuhn's essential point that we must understand
science as realpolitik, but I suggest that its force dissipates
in an instant if one asks the obvious question: would Kuhn feel
the same way if his own doctor informed him that his blood had tested
positive for HIV? It is hard to imagine that he would not quickly
develop a consuming, not-so-philosophical interest in seeing what
conclusion might be reached freed of all political, cultural and
psychological bias.
And that's
my point. We need cultural studies in science because some science
isn't being practiced as good science. The philosophers may be right
in saying that ultimate reality is forever beyond our grasp. The
pragmatists may be right that complete objectivity is impossible
for any human. But the aim, at least, should be good science, as
far as we can achieve it. The public interest demands that scientific
method in practice has to try, at least, to bring the fantasy of
theory as closely in accord with reality as humanly possible. To
that end, scientists should be ashamed of restricting the free flow
of information and debate which is the lifeblood of good science.
So should the science editors who abet them.
In the end,
the best definition of science may be Peter Duesberg's. He has sacrificed
much material advantage to a sense of public responsibility and
to an ideal of science which is simple, straightforward, has absolutely
nothing worldly about it, and no mystification either. "Science",
Duesberg has written, "is the search for the ultimate match
between facts and theory." Science studies may, ironically,
help to educate scientists, the press and the public to restore
this fundamental notion to primacy by suggesting that scientists
have their moral obligations as well. They do, when lives hinge
on truth. *
Anthony
F. Liversidge is a writer and contributing editor at Omni magazine
with a special interest in the ideas and behavior of leading scientists.
He lives in New York City.
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